March 1, 1999 – Y2K: Armageddon So Soon? The countdown to the millennium has started in earnest. News reports document a variety of responses to the year 2000, ranging from elation at the prospect of a new era of peace and prosperity to fear that the world will end in a ball of fire.
From a pragmatic perspective--which assumes that the world will continue after 2000--much attention has focused on computers. The main question, of course, is, Will computers be able to process information in 2000 or -- because of an oversight on the part of programmers -- revert to 1900 and cause havoc in all types of organizations?
Those who believe in a year 2000 doomsday scenario see the computer problem as another reason for pessimism that bolsters their cry to stockpile food, water, and fuel and withdraw from the universe until the dust clears -- if it does. Other people, perhaps the majority, view the computer issue as a technical challenge that can be met with planning and implementation. They accept the idea that there might be some glitches in the system due to computer malfunction but believe that civilization will not disappear.
Y2K and Culture
From either view, the Y2K phenomenon is influenced by culture and can affect organizations in complex ways. In the United States, for example, significant effort has been spent preparing computers to handle the new date, and government experts believe that disruption will be minimal. However, difficulties may arise from irrational reactions to the "supposed" Y2K problem. "Planning experts say those [doomsday] scenarios could include bank runs, hoarding of food and gasoline, fires caused by misuse of newly acquired wood stoves and generators, and a rise in gun violence stemming from the surge in firearm sales to those fearing civil unrest" (New York Times, February 9, 1999, p 1). In other words, the reaction to an anticipated event that may not materialize may cause more problems than the event itself.
Y2K and Organizations
For organizations the Y2K issue could result in excessive inventories. Most businesses depend on other businesses for supplies of raw material, semi-finished products, and finished products used to create industrial or consumer goods. In other words, there is a supply chain. The Y2K problem has prompted many American companies to stockpile inventories in the event that there are ruptures in the supply chain. For example, despite efforts to avoid Y2K problems, Xerox plans to build up a month’s supply of all the parts needed to produce copiers and printers–about four times the usual level for some items (Wall Street Journal, February 9, 1999, p A2).
Web Exercise
Some people claim that the United States and other countries with advanced economies will succeed in changing most of their computers in time to avoid massive problems. However, because of a lack of funds and technical expertise, many emerging countries will not be able to convert their computers in time.
Using the following Websites, find information on the status of Y2K in three countries. How does the approach to Y2K differ in various countries? Is there any truth to the notion that developed and emerging countries will meet the Y2K problem differently?
Also using these Websites, find statements from three companies located in different countries concerning Y2K. What preparations have they made or are they undertaking? What impact do they expect it to have on their company and its operation?
- http://www.year2000.com/releases/news.html
This Website provides an introduction to the extensive effort deployed to solve the Y2K problem. It includes links to international attempts to deal with Y2K and includes sites in Germany, Japan, and Korea.
- http://www.worldbank.org
The World Bank, whose motto is "A world free of poverty," provides a homepage with links to sites around the globe that comment on the condition of preparation for Y2K in various cultures.
- http://europa.eu.int/
This European Commission Website focuses on the progress of the European Union in managing the Y2K issue. It has links to a variety of countries, including Sweden, Ireland, Greece, Finland, Italy, and Denmark.
- http://2000.jbaworld.com/index.asp
The United Kingdom has a variety of seminars devoted to Y2K issues that are presented on this site.
- Russia Today
Wall Street Journal.
Links to global newspapers.E-Mail Exercise
Are the computers at your university Y2K compliant? If yes, what kind of organizational effort was needed to convert the computers early? If not, what effort, if any, is underway to change the computers?
Is your personal computer and those of your friends and relatives Y2K compliant? Using e-mail, contact a sample of your colleagues, friends, and relatives and ask them if they are concerned about Y2K and what they have done about it or plan to do. Particularly, how many people view it as an important issue, how many are not worried, and how many have taken action to deal with it -- for example, by upgrading their personal computer or stockpiling food? What factors explain their approaches to the Y2K issue?
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