Principles of Operations Management, 2/E
Chapter 2
Database Applications
Home
Table
of Contents
Case Studies
Virtual
Company
Tours
Database
Applications
The
New York
Times
Course Projects
|
|
DATABASE APPLICATION - THORNTON S&L
Thornton Savings and Loan is proud of its long tradition in Tampa, Florida. Begun by Angela Thornton four years after World War II, the S&L has bucked the trend of financial and liquidity problems that had plagued the industry since 1985. Deposits have increased slowly but surely over the years, despite recessions in 1960, 1983, 1988, and 1991. Ms. Thornton believes it necessary to have a long-range strategic plan for her firm, including a one-year forecast and preferably even a five-year forecast of deposits. She examines the past deposit data and also peruses Florida's Gross State Product (GSP) over the same 44 years. (GSP is analogous to Gross National Product, GNP, but on the state level.)
a) Using exponential smoothing, with  = .6, then trend analysis, and finally linear regression, discuss which forecasting model fits best for Thornton's strategic plan. Justify why one model should be selected over another.
b) Carefully examine the data. Can you make a case for excluding a portion of the information? Why? Would that change your choice of model?
| Year |
Deposits*
|
GSP_
|
Year |
Deposits*
|
GSP_
|
Year |
Deposits*
|
GSP_
|
| 1951
|
.25
|
.4
| 1967
|
2.3
|
1.6
| 1982
|
24.1
|
3.9
|
| 1952
|
.24
|
.4
|
1968
|
2.8
|
1.5
| 1983
|
25.6
|
3.8
|
| 1953 |
.24
|
.5
| 1969
|
2.8
|
1.6
| 1984 |
30.3
|
3.8
|
| 1954 |
.26
|
.7
| 1970 |
2.7
|
1.7
| 1985 |
36.0
|
3.7
|
| 1956 |
.25
|
.9
| 1971 |
3.9
|
1.9
| 1986
|
31.1
|
4.1
|
| 1957 |
.30
|
1.0
|
1972 |
4.9
|
1.9
|
1987 |
31.7
|
4.1
|
| 1958 |
.31 |
1.4
|
1973 |
5.3
|
2.3
|
1988 |
38.5
|
4.0
|
| 1959 |
.32
|
1.7
|
1974 |
6.2
|
2.5
|
1989 |
47.9
|
4.5
|
| 1960 |
.24
|
1.3
|
1975 |
4.1
|
2.8
|
1990 |
49.1
|
4.6
|
| 1961 |
.26
|
1.2
|
1976
|
4.5
|
2.9
|
1991
|
55.8
|
4.5 |
| 1962
|
.25
|
1.1
|
1977
|
6.1
|
3.4
|
1992
|
70.1
|
4.6
|
| 1963
|
.33
|
.9
|
1978
|
7.7
|
3.8
|
1993
|
70.9
|
4.6
|
| 1964
|
.50
|
1.2
|
1979
|
10.1
|
4.1
|
1994
|
79.1
|
4.7
|
| 1965
|
.95
|
1.2
|
1980
|
15.2
|
4.0
|
1995
|
94.0
|
5.0
|
| 1966
|
1.7
|
1.2
|
1981
|
18.1
|
4.0
|
* In $ millions.
_ In $ billions. |
Your name:
Your email address: (required)
Your instructor's name:
Your instructor's email address: (required)
|